Recent surges in open interest on Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts suggests institutional players are continuing to build positions in the top two cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC) futures daily trading volume plunged sharply from about $20 billion on June 11 to about $5 billion on June 13. This is a negative sign because the volume increased during the sharp fall on June 11 but reduced during the rebound on June 12 and 13.
On June 14, the top-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap declined but the futures volume picked up, suggesting a higher number of bearish trades on market declines and a lesser number of bullish trades during pullbacks.
While the trading volume fell, open interest on Bitcoin derivatives has risen to about $4 billion for the first time in three months. This suggests that the long-term players are not liquidating their positions yet as they do not see a major decline from the current levels.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
It is not only Bitcoin open interest that has been increasing, Ether (ETH) futures contracts have also been creating records. This suggests that institutional investors are diversifying their crypto portfolio by increasing positions in the biggest altcoin.
The failure of the bulls to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($9,495) for the past three days attracted further selling. Today, Bitcoin (BTC) broke below the support line of the symmetrical triangle.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
While the breakdown was a huge negative, the bears could not sustain the selling pressure at lower levels.
The BTC/USD pair turned around from $8,910.04 and has currently climbed back inside the triangle. If the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA, another attempt to break out of the $10,000–$10,500 zone is likely.
Conversely, if the bears again defend the 20-day EMA, they are likely to make another attempt to sink the pair below the triangle. A close (UTC time) below the triangle will be a huge negative and can result in a decline to $8,638.79 and below it to $8,130.58.
As both the bulls and the bears are locked in a tussle to gain the upper hand, the volatility is likely to remain high for the next few days.
Ether (ETH) broke below the ascending channel on June 11. Unlike previous breakdowns (marked as ellipses on the chart), the bulls could not push the price back into the channel and sustain it.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
This attracted further selling and the second-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap broke below the uptrend line. There is a minor support at the 50-day simple moving average ($217) below which the decline can extend to $196 and then to $176.112.
On the other hand, if the ETH/USD pair bounces off the 50-day SMA and sustains above $225.783, it will signal strong demand at lower levels. That could result in consolidation between $253.556–$225.783 for a few days.
The weak rebound off the support line of the symmetrical triangle indicates a lack of buyers at higher levels. Currently, the bears are attempting to sink XRP below the triangle. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.197) and the relative strength index in the negative territory suggests an advantage to the bears.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
On a close (UTC time) below the triangle, the third-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap can drop to $0.16 and if this support also cracks, the next support is at $0.14.
However, if the bulls manage to keep the BCH/USD pair inside the triangle, it will signal accumulation at lower levels. The advantage will turn in favor of the bulls on a break above the triangle.
Although Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has been trading inside the large $200–$280.47 range for the past few months, the price has been stuck inside a tighter $217.55–$255.46 range for the past few days.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Currently, the bears are attempting to sink the fifth-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap below the $217.55 support. If successful, a drop to $200 is likely. The bulls are likely to defend the $200–$217.55 zone aggressively and a break below this zone will be a huge negative.
Conversely, if the BCH/USD pair rebounds off the $200–$217.55 zone, it will indicate accumulation at lower levels. This will also keep the pair inside the range and could offer a buying opportunity to the traders.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) broke below the critical support of $170 for the first time since April 2. This is a negative sign as it suggests that the bulls are not able to defend this level.
BSV/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day EMA ($188) has started to slope down and the RSI is close to the oversold levels, suggesting that bears have the upper hand.
If the sixth-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap closes (UTC time) below $170, it will indicate that the range has resolved to the downside. Below $170, a drop to $146.20 and then to $120 is likely.
This bearish view will be invalidated if the BSV/USD pair closes (UTC time) above $170. Such a move will suggest that the bulls are defending the support levels and the range-bound is likely to continue for a few more days.
The rebound after the sharp fall on June 11 could not rise above the moving averages. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears are now likely to attempt to sink Litecoin (LTC) to the support of the large $39–$51 range.
LTC/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The $39 level has not been breached on a closing basis since April, hence, the bulls are likely to buy the dip to this level aggressively.
A strong rebound off this support will increase the possibility that the range-bound action will continue for a few more days. In a large range, a strong bounce off the support can be viewed as a buying opportunity.
This view will be invalidated if the bears sink the seventh-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap below $39. If that happens, a drop to $32.50 is likely.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been range-bound between $18.1377 and $15.72 for the past few days. After failing to break out of the range between May 21–June 2, the bears are currently attempting to sink the altcoin below the support.
BNB/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, suggesting that bears have the upper hand.
If the eighth-ranked crypto-asset on CoinMarketCap closes (UTC time) below $15.72, a drop to $13.65 is possible. This support has held for more than two months, hence, the bulls will try to defend it once again.
However, if the bulls defend the $15.72 levels on a closing basis, it will be a huge positive and can result in a move to $18.1377. A breakout of this resistance is likely to start a new uptrend.
The rebound in EOS following the fall on June 11 could not even reach the moving averages. This suggests a lack of buying interest at higher levels. The altcoin has turned down and can now reach the critical support at $2.3314.
EOS/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
If the bears sink and sustain the ninth-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap below $2.3314, it suggests that bears have overpowered the bulls. This could result in a drop to $2.09 and below it to $1.8309.
However, the bulls have repeatedly defended the $2.3314 support. If the bulls successfully defend $2.3314 once again, the EOS/USD pair might extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
CRO/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The strong rally from the lows had pushed the RSI deep into overbought territory. The CRO/USD pair is currently correcting the overbought levels but the trend remains up.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
The first support on the downside is at the 20-day EMA ($0.100). If the pair bounces off this support, the bulls will again attempt to resume the uptrend.
However, if the bears sink the pair below the 20-day EMA, the selling can intensify and drag the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.079).
Cardano (ADA) has broken below the 20-day EMA ($0.075), which suggests that the bullish momentum has weakened. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has dropped to the 50 levels indicating a balance between supply and demand.
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The bulls are currently attempting to defend the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.0705811. If the 11th-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap bounces off this support, it can move up to $0.080 and above it to $0.0901373.
Conversely, if the support cracks, the ADA/USD pair can decline to the 50-day SMA ($0.062). This is a critical support to watch out for because if this level breaks down, the decline can extend to $0.0510249.
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Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.